The most recent YouGov/The Times poll published on 4th February has a sudden increase in support for the LEAVE campaign following a disappointing response to the draft deal offered by the European Union.
The full results of the poll are as follows (with the upscaled result if don’t know and would not vote are excluded in brackets):
LEAVE: 45% (56%)
REMAIN: 36% (44%)
Don’t know: 17%
Would not vote: 2%
These results show a growing air of disappointment in the immediate aftermath of the draft deal. A few days earlier, LEAVE had been leading at 42%. So a three point gain, but significant given that it only continues to increase the margin of difference that has been building up over the past couple of months. The theme of the draft deal is that there is an air of compromise and some aspects which need greater clarity in order to make a judgement. Therefore, it’s not surprising the LEAVE campaign would gain a few points from this. It’s important to note this is a DRAFT deal and with the full publication yet to come, it will be interesting to see the impact of full clarity upon the polls and voting intention. The impact could have been worse following the draft deal, but it’s not fantastic for the REMAIN campaign to be dropping so far behind LEAVE after they had been neck-and-neck just a few months ago.